Practical Considerations in Implementing Travel Time Reliability in Regionwide Travel Forecasting
نویسندگان
چکیده
Travel time reliability has been shown to influence travelers’ decisions as to choice of destination and choice of route. This paper explores options for the inclusion of travel time reliability into a regional travel forecasting model and tests those options on a full-sized network in the Wheeling metropolitan area. Options include two different path building algorithms, different parameters (locally derived v. borrowed) for the coefficient of variation of link travel time, and the size of the “reliability ratio”, which is the weight for the standard deviation of travel time when included in the path impedance function. The two path building algorithms were the “naïve” algorithm, which does not find shortest paths but weights reliability the same on each link, and the “shortest marginal” algorithm, which does find shortest paths but emphasizes variations in delays on links earliest in a path. The tests are not considered definitive due to relatively low congestion levels in Wheeling, but there were indications that the “naïve” algorithm and borrowed parameters performed best. The experience showed that including travel time reliability in regionwide travel forecasts is straight-forward, there are ample resources to establish reasonable parameters, no compromises need to be made for implementation, and that the computational burden is modest. However, it is important that any model have very good travel time and delay estimates to begin with before layering on reliability as another consideration for path selection.
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تاریخ انتشار 2011